Three Paths on the Modernization Map
When confronting the COBOL conundrum, organizations typically navigate one of three primary strategic avenues. Each path presents its unique set of complexities, potential risks, and anticipated rewards. A clear understanding of these options is the foundational step towards making a well-informed, strategic decision that aligns with business objectives.
Discard existing COBOL applications and develop new systems from scratch or buy Off-The-Shelf solutions.
Key Challenges:
- Rewriting requires a deep understanding of the existing code, including complex algorithms that few current individuals may comprehend
- High risk of project failure
- Very expensive and time-consuming
- Potential for business disruption during transition
- Risk of vendor lock-in with Off-The-Shelf solutions
My Take:
COBOL systems are the result of years of hard work by hundreds of thousands of analysts and programmers. Each system contains decades of embedded problems solution, forgotten rules, and historic regulatory minefields. Replacement is stated to cost dozens of millions of dollars, has a high probability of failure, and the ROI is ZERO.
COBOL systems are irreplaceable.
Why Consider It?
- AI-powered solutions speed code conversion.
- JAVA is easier than COBOL to be implemented in the cloud.
- IBM is putting significant weight behind this.
The approach involves automatically converting COBOL code to another language, such as Java or C#.
COBOL is an easy language. The problem is the “spaghetti”, years of maintenance, fixing bugs, adding regulations rules and business instructions and no documentation – that is the real problem.
My Take:
The conversion can be complicate and Java introduces unnecessary complexity that doesn't enhance code readability.
Java will only aggravate the situation.
This strategy focuses on enhancing the structure of existing source code without changing its behaviour. The process consists in breaking down monolithic COBOL applications into smaller, more manageable modules, applying modern programming practices, cleaning the code. It makes it more efficient, readable and maintainable, all while ensuring it still functions exactly as it did before.
My Take:
- ✔A solution that can be implemented by steps, with low risk.
- 💰It maximizes ROI: Builds on decades of existing investment and IP.
When It's a Good Fit:
- The underlying business logic is still sound and highly relevant.
- Primary goals are reducing maintenance costs, boosting performance, or enabling integration.
Artificial Intelligence
AI COBOL maintenance and AI as a practical alternative to COBOL is an intriguing choice. AI agents are still in their infancy, but it is developing fast. AI-powered tools will be able to analyze COBOL code, find opportunities for improvement, and even generate new code in COBOL. AI models are becoming more sophisticated every day.
Claude and Gemini work smoothly with Python and JavaScript, but COBOL is different: Again, the main problem is not the COBOL syntax but understanding legacy programs.
While supporting COBOL programs, I often joined experts to decipher five lines of that seemed incorrect code. After hours of analysis, we concluded the code was indeed wrong.
I ask myself how the AI will cope with this - It will take time for the AI to get control of it, but it will.
Modernizing COBOL is far more than a technical puzzle.
When it comes to your core COBOL applications, it is essential to make decisions carefully, a wrong decision can be detrimental. Every few years, a new technology promises to be the silver bullet. Now is IBM and so many others promising the miracle of translation to JAVA with AI automation...
Modernizing these complex applications can present significant risks and a high chance of failure if approached as a simple translation.
COBOL systems are the reliable backbone of global finance, government, and insurance, faithfully processing billions of dollars in transactions daily. They require specialized knowledge to understand amidst a diminishing pool of experts and lack of comprehensive documentation.
Is COBOL *really* the core problem? Or is it years of deferred maintenance, inadequate documentation, or a skills issue that could be addressed through targeted training and strategic hiring?
Key Advice for Decision-Makers:
1. Understand Before You Act
Invest heavily in understanding your existing COBOL applications. Document them, analyze dependencies, and meticulously identify critical business logic. You cannot make an informed decision without this foundational knowledge.
2. Don't Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater
That COBOL code runs your business for a reason. It contains invaluable intellectual property and decades of refined, battle-tested business logic. Recognize its inherent value.
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